Özet:

This study focuses on the business cycles in the Turkish economy under the changing economic policy after the deep financial risis of 2001. This new process started in 2002 was based on three basic structural transformations; budget control, strong banking system and independent central bank. The monetary policy which played a leading role was carried out by the independent central bank in the inflation targeting regime in this process. It is expected that the policy that price stability takes priority will also be effective on output stability. The emergence of two disparate sub-periods under the influence of the global crisis and domestic policy changes has also had an impact on output stability. This created two regimes with different average growth rates. In our study, we examine output stability using 2002-2016 quarterly GDP data. We develop a Markov-switching model which allwos a given variable to follow a different time series process over different subsamples. The results show that expansion periods are highly persistent while depression periods are transitory and finite lives.

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