Özet:

The authors have analysed the theoretical possibilities of prognostication the dynamics in the number and mass reproduction of some species of harmful insects. A theoretical synthesis of the information on the regularities of the population dynamics of the most common insect pests of agricultural plants from the point of view of the methodology of nonlinear dynamics and synergetics has been done. Based on the past and present an analysis of the many-year dynamics in the number of the insect populations has been carried out and an attempt to develop the algorithms for prognostication the seasonal and annual changes in the number of the insects has been made. To do this the authors recommend a scenario-based method of prognostication and making decisions in plant protection. Using the phytosanitary monitoring they determine the beginning of the regular mass reproduction (the appearance of an aggravated rate) and then, based on the phytosanitary prognosis, an aggravation of the situation that has developed or is being developing on the farm, in the district or in the region is made; after that on the base of the short-term prognosis (signaling) it is recommended to make the optimal decision to protect a particular crop taking into account the economic threshold of harmfulness. According to the authors this approach, based on the methodology of nonlinear dynamics (synergetic paradigm), makes it possible to determine in advance the breeding grounds of the aggravated rates and make the optimal decisions in plant protection. The predicted scenario will not be a prognostication of the future, but the elements of an evolutionary process inherent in nature. Key words: Population dynamics; Population cycles; Insects number; Synergetic approach; Nonlinear dynamics; Prognostication References Babchuk I.V. (1983). Rekomendacii po prognozu razvitiya, rasprostraneniya i uchetu chislennosti lugovogo motylka, Kiev, Urozhaj, 24. (in Russian). Belanovskij I.D. (1936). Zakonomernostiv massovyh razmnozheniyah vreditelej v svyazi s meteorologicheskimi faktorami, Zoologicheskij zhurnal, T. 15 (2), 187–216. (in Russian). Belanovskij I.D. (1940). O massovyh razmnozheniyah nasekomyh. Pervaya ekologicheskaya konferenciya po probleme «Massovye razmnozheniya zhivotnyh i ih prognozy», Ch. 1, Kiev, Izdatelstvo AN USSR, 8–10. (in Russian). Belanovskij I.D. (1950). Osobennosti massovyh razmnozhenij nasekomyh i principy ih prognozirovaniya. Vtoraya ekol.konf. po probleme «Massovye razmnozheniya zhivotnyh i ih prognozy», Ch. 1, Kiev, Izdatelstvovo KTU, 10–11. (in Russian). Beleckij E. N. & Stankevich S. V. (2018). Policiklichnost', sinhronnost' i nelinejnost' populjacionnoj dinamiki nasekomyh i problemy prognozirovanija, Vienna, Premier Publishing s.r.o. Vienna (in Russian). Beleckij E. N., Stankevich S. V. & Nemerickaja L. V. (2017). Sovremennye predstavlenija o dinamike populjacij nasekomyh: proshloe, nastojashhee, budushhee. Sinergeticheskij podhod. Vesti HNAU im. V. V. Dokuchaeva. Series Fitopatologija i jentomologija, 1–2, 22–33. (in Russian). Beleckij E.N. (2006). Teoriya i tehnologiya mnogoletnego prognoza, Zashita i karantin rastenij, ??? 5, 46–50. (in Russian). Beletskij E. N. (2011). Massovye razmnozheniia nasekomykh. Istoriia, teoriia, prognozirovanie, Kharkov, Maidan, 172. (in Russian). Bezpal'ko, V.V., Zhukova, L.V. & Stankevych, S.V. et al. (2019). Ecologically safe methods for presowing treatment of cereal seeds. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 9 (3), 189–197. Bileckij Ye.M. (2004). Zakonomirnosti prognozu masovogo rozmnozhennya luchnogo metelika, Karantin i zahist roslin, ??? 9, 11–13. (in Ukrainian). Bileckij Ye.M. (2005). Teoriya i tehnologiya bagatorichnogo prognozu v zahisti roslin, Naukovij visnik ANVShU, Kiyiv, ??? 3 (29), 57–70. (in Ukrainian). Bolshakov V.N. (1983). Ekologicheskoe prognozirovanie, Moskva, Znanie, 64. (in Russian). Dovgan S.V. (2009). Modeli prognozu rozvitku ta rozmnozhennya fitofagiv, Herson, Ajlant, 208. (in Ukrainian). Druzhelyubova T.S. & Makarova L.A. (1972). Pogoda i prognoz razmnozheniya vrednyh nasekomyh, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 84. (in Russian). Dubinin N.P. & Romashov D.D. (1932). Geneticheskoe stroenie vida i ego evolyuciya. Genetiko-avtomaticheskie processy i problema ekogenotipov, Biologicheskij zhurnal, T.1, Vyp. 5–6, 52–95. (in Russian). Fedorenko V. (2011). Uvaga – luchnij metelik!, Propoziciya, ??? 11, 88–91. (in Ukrainian). Letopis Samovidca. (1878). Polnoe sobranie ruskih letopisej, Kiev, 174. (in Russian). Lutytska, N.V., Stankevych, S.V. & Zabrodina, I.V. et al. (2019). Soybean insect pests: A review of Ukrainian and world data. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 9 (3), 208–213. Malineckij G.G. (1997). Sinergetika, predskazuemost i determinirovannyj haos. Predely predskazuemosti, Moskva, Centr Kom, 69–130. (in Russian). Mokrzheckij S.A. (1902). Lugovoj motylek, ego zhizn i mery borby s nim, Trudy byuro po entomologii, T. 3, ??? 2, 36. (in Russian). Nakonechna, Yu.O., Stankevych, S.V. & Zabrodina, I.V. et al. (2019). Distribution area of Hyphantria cunea Drury: the analysis of Ukrainian and world data. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 9 (3), 214–220. Obzor fitosostoyaniya posevov selskohozyajstvennyh kultur v Rossijskoj Federacii v 2010 godu i prognoz razvitiya vrednyh obektov v 2011 godu. (2011). Moskva, 44. (in Russian). Polyakov I.Ya. (1964). Prognoz rasprostraneniya vreditelej selsko-hozyajstvennyh kultur, Leningrad, Kolos, 326. (in Russian). Pyatnickij G.K. (1936). Pogodnye usloviya i prognoz razvitiya lugovogo motylka. Trudy po zashite rastenij, seriya entomologiya, T. 1, Vyp. 15, 68. (in Russian). Shmalgauzen I.I. (1946). Faktory evolyucii, Moskva–Leningrad, Izdatelstvo ANSSSR, 396. (in Russian). Shvarc S.S. (1980). Ekologicheskie zakonomernosti evolyucii, Moskva, Nauka, 278. (in Russian). Sokolov N.N. (1901). Nasekomye i drugie zhivotnye, nanosyashie vred v selskom hozyajstve. Mavrskij (gottentotskij) klop (Eurygaster maura F.) ili cherepashka, Sankt-Peterburg, Izdatelstvo Minesterstva zemli i osnovnyh imushestv. Departament zemli, 82 s. (in Russian). Stankevich S. V., Beleckij E. N. & Zabrodina I. V. (2019). Ciklicheski-nelinejnaya dinamika prirodnyh sistem i problemy prognozirovaniya: monografiya, Vankuver, Accent Graphics Communications & Publishing, 232. (in Russian). Stankevych S. V., Yevtushenko M. D. & Zabrodina I. V. et al. (2019). V.V. Dokuchaiev Scientific School of Kharkiv National Agrarian University and development agricultural entomology in XIX-XXI centuries. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 9 (2), 156–169. Stankevych, S. V., Baidyk, H. V., Lezhenina, I. P., Filatov, ??. O., Martynenko, V.I. et al. (2019). Wandering of mass reproduction of harmful insects within the natural habitat. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 9(4), 578-583. Stankevych S.V., Vasylieva Yu.V., Golovan L.V., Zabrodina I.V., Lutytska N.V., Nakonechna Yu.O., Molchanova O.A., Chupryna Yu.Yu., Zhukova L.V. (2019). Chronicle of insect pests massive reproduction. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 9 (1), 262–274. Stankevych, S.V., Yevtushenko, M.D. & Vilna, V.V. et al. (2019). Integrated pest management of flea beetles (Phyllotreta spp.) in spring oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.). Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 9 (3), 198–207. Strigun O.O. (2002). Vpliv meteorologichnih umov na bagatorichnu dinamiku chiselnosti zvichajnogo buryakovogo dovgonosika, Zahist i karantin roslin: mizhvidoschij tematichnij naukovij zbirnik, Kiyiv, Vip. 48, 128–139. (in Ukrainian). Stankevych S. V., Yevtushenko M. D., Vilna V. V., Zabrodina I. V., Yushchuk D. D. et al. (2019). Efficiency of chemical protection of spring rape and mustard from rape blossom beetle. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 9(4), 584-598. Tribel S.A. (1989). Lugovoj motylek, Moskva, Agropromizdat, 1989, 64. (in Ukrainian). Turenko V. P., Bilyk M. O. & Zhukova L. V. (2019). Pathogens of spring barley on abiotic factors in the eastern forest – steppe of Ukraine. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 9 (2), 179–188. Uatt K. (1971). Ekologiya i upravlenie prirodnymi resursami, Moskva, Mir, 464. (in Russian). Viktorov G.A. (1967). Problemy dinamiki chislennosti nasekomyh (na primere vrednoj cherepashki), Moskva, Nauka, 271. (in Russian). Zhukova L. V., S. V. Stankevych, & V. P. Turenko (2019). Root rots of spring barley, their harmfulness and the basic effective protection measures. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 9 (2), 232–238.

Anahtar Kelimeler: