Özet:

Agricultural forecasting is an essential element of country's planning and sustainable economic growth. Honey is a strategic product for Turkey. Although there has been an increase in the number of hives in recent years, there has been a decrease in natural honey yield in Turkey. The purpose of this article is to estimate the natural honey yield for the next decade. In this study, it was estimated with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model by using annual data between 1961-2019. Forecasting was made with ARIMA model (7, 1, 1), which is the most suitable model. According to the forecasting results, it was calculated that the honey yield increase rate would be an average of 0.82% per year. 'Honey Forest Action Plans' were prepared in 2018-2023 to increase honey production and yield in Turkey. With this plan taking full action, there may be a greater increase than expected honey yield. In addition, it is very important to protect bees' natural habitats and the environment for sustainable honey production. As a result, it may be suggested to minimize environmental factors that cause low honey yield for sustainable production.

Anahtar Kelimeler: