Abstract:

This study examined the relationships between the savings-investment balance and the balance of currency transactions, for the 1980:Q1-2002:Q4 and 2003:Q1-2019:Q1 periods. The stagnation of the series; Lee and Strazicich (2003) was studied by the structural broken unit root test and in the 1980:Q1-2002:Q4 period the investment series I(1), the other series were determined as I(0) . The existence of the integration relationship between the 1980-2002 period of savings and investments series has been studied by the Border Test and the series has been shown to be integrated. The structural breakdown dates in the models have been added to the regression analysis with doll variables, determined by the Bai and Perron (2003) method. Regression analysis between the 1980:Q1-2002:Q4 period savings and investment variables with the ARDL method, Regression analysis for other models with the ECK method, in Turkey the currency transaction gap in the 1980:Q1-2002:Q4 period and in the 2003:Q1-2019:Q1 period is also sustainable in weak form, sustainability is weakened after 2003. Between the balance of investment and savings and the balance of currency transactions, there has been a strong relationship in both periods. The causal relationships between the series were studied in the period 1980-2002 with the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) method for Model 1, and the Granger (1969) test for other models. These tests have found that in the period 1980:Q1-2002:Q4 and in the period 2003:Q1-2019:Q1 there was a one-way causal relationship between domestic savings and domestic investments. In the 1980:Q1-2002:Q4 period, there was no causal relationship between the investment-saving gap and the trade gap. During the 2003:Q1-2019:Q1 period, there was a two-way causal relationship between the investment-saving gap and the currency gap.

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