Abstract:

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) assertive power projection in the South China Sea (SCS) and its consequences in the form of hybrid threats have increasingly become an accepted reality of the region. China has gradually constructed this “new normal” or “fait accompli” under the framework of its assertive policies which have generated geostrategic repercussions both in the regional and global landscape. Despite the fact that most of the recent studies particularly address China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or regional politics, a holistic assessment of China’s assertive behavior requires a concentrated focus on China’s employment of maritime hybrid instruments in the service of its declarative, demonstrative and coercive actions. Rather than engaging in open military confrontation in the SCS dispute, China skillfully synchronizes the military, political, economic, cyber and information sources of power in different operational domains to influence, intimidate and coerce the competing claimants. Furthermore, with a structural approach, the impact of China’s employment of assertive maritime hybrid instruments go beyond regional level to have possible repercussions on the future of global-level power shifts. The current conditions of China’s growing material power, its will to use hybrid instruments, and increasing vulnerabilities and lack of a coordinated response seem to reinforce a breeding ground for future assertiveness and a possible shift in the balance of power. However, in the long-term it would not be surprising to see stiffened counter efforts to disrupt its initiatives on a global landscape. Therefore, this study aims to shed light on the context and cumulative effects of China’s assertive employment of maritime hybrid instruments while discussing increasing international concerns on the altering dynamics of balance of power.

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