Özet:

Turkey is the world's largest ink manufacturer and exporter with 10 million incirds and 300,000 tons of incirds annual production. Therefore, it is important to make a forecast of the amount of oil production and dry oil exports of Turkey, which has the ability to affect not only the domestic market, but also the world markets. In the study, the statistics provided by the "United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization" and the "Turkish Statistical Authority" in order to make forecast for the year 2019-2025 of the Turkish age ink production and the amount of dry ink exports; the year 1961-2018 for the age ink production, the year 1980-2018 for the dry ink export, the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018 for the year 1980-2018. In the framework of the analysis, the ADF unit root test was used to evaluate the stagnations of the variables, the average absolute percentage error to test the predictive power of the model and the Theil inequality ratio. With regard to many criteria, the most suitable model for both age and dry ink exports is identified as ARIMA (2,1,2). According to the results of the forecast, the age ink production is expected to reach 317,000 tons in 2025 by showing a trend of growth outside of 2020 and 2022, while the amount of dry ink exports is expected to increase annually by showing a trend of growth by 19% in 2025 by showing a trend of growth compared to 2018 by showing a trend of growth by 97,000 tons. 2 for the production of dried inserts. Considering the forecast made for both series under the assumption that 9 kg of fresh insects should be taken into account, the insects to be produced will be exported as dry insects in 2019 by 74.17%, in 2022 by 80.10% and in 2025 by 86.05%. This ratio was estimated at 46.08 percent in 1980, 52.03 percent in 2000 and 66.28 percent in 2010 and is expected to be exported as dried dried dried much higher than in previous years.

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