Özet:

This article analyzes and estimates the crude death rate rates (CDR) of Turkey and its regions by using exponential function modeling. The exponential function created for death rates was made linear by taking its logarithm, and the initial value C and increase rate A coefficients were calculated by the least squares method. The models were created on the crude death rates (1/1000) data of Turkey and 12 regions. Furthermore, a quadratic function was modeled on CMR data during the Covid period and the expected and actual death rates in Turkey were calculated. Results obtained from the study: a) Turkey's 2023 PES rate is expected to be 6.0861 with an increase of 2.4478%. 2023 CMR rate predictions in the regions are: TR8 Western Black Sea will reach 8.9605 with an increase of 2.1656%. TR2 West Marmara was calculated as 8.8539 with a change of -1.093%. TR9 Eastern Black Sea was found to be 8.6633 with an increase of -0.203%. TR3 Aegean was found to be 7.7505 with an increase of 1.0319%. TR7 Central Anatolia was estimated as 7.0085 with an increase of 5.0633%. TR4 East Marmara was calculated as 6.4294 with a change of 1.2841%. TR6 Mediterranean was calculated as 5.8906 with an increase of 2.9542%. TR5 Western Anatolia was found to be 5.7600 with an increase of 4.5652%. TRA Northeast Anatolia will be 5.4206 with an increase of 3.6404%. TR1 Istanbul will reach 4.8131 with an increase of 3.5996%. TRB Middle East Anatolia was found to be 4.4827 with an increase of 4.0291% in 2023. TRC Southeastern Anatolia was calculated as 3.7307 with an increase of 6.201%. Apart from these: b) While Turkey's expected average PES rate was 5.8643 during the Covid period from mid-2019 to the end of 2022, the actual average PES rate was 6.3793. During this period, Turkey's PPP rate was 1.2575 higher than the expected value.

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