Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the effects of the changes in the real exchange rate on the sectoral and factor endowment exports of the Turkish economy, using 108 monthly data between the years 2013-2021. For this purpose, factor densities in the foreign trade of the country's economy are calculated, and the relationship between factor densities and exports is tested with symmetric and asymmetric causality test methods on the axis of the obtained values. According to the results of the symmetric causality test, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between the exchange rate and exports of investment goods, intermediate goods, consumer goods, and labor-intensive goods, while a unidirectional causality relationship was found towards exports of easily imitated R&D-based goods. According to the results of the asymmetric causality test, there is a unidirectional causality relationship from positive shocks in the exchange rate to negative shocks of consumer goods exports, to positive shocks of exports of raw material-intensive goods, exports of labor-intensive goods, exports of capital-intensive goods and easily imitated R&D-based goods. On the other hand, it is seen that there is a unidirectional causality relationship between negative shocks in the exchange rate to negative and positive shocks in consumer goods. Within the framework of the results obtained, the connection between the new foreign trade policy (competitive exchange rate) and the high value-added industrialization strategy of the country's economy has been evaluated.

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