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Bu çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye için 1960-2014 döneminde Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (EKC) hipotezini, kişi başı karbondioksit miktarı, kişi başı gelir düzeyi ve kişi başı enerji tüketimi değişkenlerini kullanarak analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla, Gregory-Hansen yapısal kırılmalı eş-bütünleşme tekniği kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de EKC hipotezinin geçerli olmadığını, değişkenler arasında yapısal kırılmalı eş-bütünleşme ilişkisinin bulunduğunu ve hata düzeltme mekanizmasının çalıştığını göstermektedir. Tahmin edilen Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisinin biçimi N şeklindedir. Ekonomik büyümenin yaşandığı ilk periyotta çevresel kirlilik artmakta ve belirli bir refah seviyesine ulaşınca azalmakta olsa da ilerleyen süreçte çevresel kirlilik artmaktadır. ECM tahminlerine göre ise kişi başı gelir düzeyi ve kişi başı enerji tüketiminden kaynaklanan şokların %81’i bir dönem içinde giderilmekte ve sistem yeniden uzun dönem dengesine gelmektedir
The main objective of this study for Turkey in the period 1960-2014 is to analyze the Hypothesis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (ECC), the amount of carbon dioxide per person, the level of income per person and the variables of energy consumption per person. For this purpose, the Gregory-Hansen structural broken equalization technique was used. The findings show that the ECC hypothesis in Turkey is not valid, that there is a structural break-down co-integration relationship between the variables and that the error correction mechanism is working. The estimated environmental Kuznets curve is in the form of N. In the first period of economic growth, environmental pollution increases and decreases when it reaches a certain level of well-being, but in the progressive process, environmental pollution increases. According to the ECM estimates, 81% of the shocks caused by per capita income and per capita energy consumption are eliminated within a period of time and the system is back to a long-term balance.
The main purpose of this study is to determine the validity of Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) hypothesis for Turkey by CO2 per capita, GDP per capita, and Energy consumption per capita variables in 1960-2014 sample period. For this purpose, the Gregory-Hansen co-integration method with a structural break was used. Empirical evidences reveal that the EKC hypothesis is not valid, co-integration relationship with structural break exists among the variables, and the error correction mechanism works. Estimated Environmental Kuz-nets Curve is N shaped. The first period in which economic growth occurs, environmental pollution increases and after reaching a certain welfare level decreases. However, environmental pollution increases during the following period. According to ECM estimations, 81% of the shocks that arise from GDP per capita and energy consumption per capita are eliminated in one period and the system reaches to long-run equilibrium again.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Ulusal
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