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Türkiye’de nohut üretimi yaklaşık 630.000 ton düzeyinde olup, yıllara göre ekim alanında azalmaya karşın üretim miktarı da dalgalanma göstermektedir. Üretimdeki dalgalanmaya paralel olarak artan ithalat ve kişi başına tüketim, üretimde devamlılık sorunu olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışmada, nohutun beslenme ve tüketim alışkanlıklarımızdaki önemi nedeniyle, Türkiye’de nohut üretim ve dış ticaretinin mevcut durumu ortaya konulmuş ve gelecek beş yıla ait (2019-2023) üretim öngörüsünde bulunulmuştur. Çalışmada, nohutun gelecek 5 yıla ilişkin üretim miktarı Box-Jenkins metodu olan ARIMA modeli ile tahmin edilmiştir. Analizde kullanılan veriler 1985-2018 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Yapılana analizler sonucunda ARIMA (1,3,1) modeli nohut üretiminin tahminine ilişkin en uygun model olarak tespit edilmiştir. Yapılan tahmine göre 2019-2023 yılları arasında nohut üretiminde artış olacağı öngörülmüştür.
The production in Turkey is approximately 630,000 tons, and despite decreasing in the October area over the years, the production amount is also volatile. Increasing imports and consumption per person, parallel to the volatility in production, shows that there is a problem of continuity in production. In this study, due to the importance of nuts in our nutrition and consumption habits, the current state of nuts production and foreign trade in Turkey has been revealed and the production forecast for the next five years (2019-2023) has been made. In the study, the production amount for the next 5 years was estimated by the ARIMA model, the Box-Jenkins method. The data used in the analysis covers the period 1985-2018. As a result of the analyses made, the ARIMA (1,3,1) model was identified as the most appropriate model for the forecast of nuts production. It is estimated that the production of nuts will increase between 2019-2023.
The chickpea production in Turkey is approximately 630.000 tons, despite the decrease in production area also shows fluctuations. The increase in imports and per capita consumption in parallel with the fluctuation in production reveals a continuity problem in production. In this study, because of the importance of our nutrition and consumption habits of chickpea, the current situation of chickpea production and foreign trade of Turkey and amount of production in next five-years (2019-2023) were forecasted. Box-Jenkins method, ARIMA model was used for this estimation. The data used in the analysis covers the period 1985-2018. As a result of the analyzes, ARIMA (1,3,1) model was found to be the most suitable model for chickpea production. According to the estimation, it is predicted that chickpea production will increase between the years 2019-2023.
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
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