Abstract:

In this study, using the relationships between seismotectonic b-value, fractal size Dc-value and leading seismic stop-value Z-value, we analyzed the regional and time-related changes of earthquake for the North Anadolu Fay Zone and its surroundings, which is one of the most actively verified seismically landfilled fiber systems in the world. A number of regression methods have been tested to reveal an up-to-date and reliable statistical relationship between the value b and the value Dc. For KAFZ and its surroundings, the ratio Dc=2.46-0.58*b with a very strong negative ratio (r=-0.98) with the Orthogonal regression compatibility was more reliably calculated. There have been significant variations in time-related changes in b and Dc values, and as a result, the decline in b values between 2012-2013 and the trend of increase in Dc values may be significant in terms of the KAFZ and the potential for future earthquakes around. The small b-values of 1.0 and the large Dc-values of 1.85 have been observed in the areas around the Düzce Fai and the Black Sea coast, the Pülümür Fai and the Erzincan coast, between Pülümür-Karlıova, Sancak-Uzunpınar and Göynük Fai zones. At the beginning of 2016, Enez, the north of the Etili shore, Çanakkale and Edremit, Tekirdağ-Silivri and the Marmara Sea, the Black Sea part and around Yalova-Izmit, the north of the Manyas shore zone, Iznik-Gebze, Düzce shore and the Black Sea coast, Ismetpaşa segment and Laçin-Merzifon shore zones and the surrounding earthquake stagnation anomalies were observed. The areas with both the lowest b-value and the highest Dc-value and the highest Z-value are around the straight river and the Black Sea coastline. As an important result, the joint assessment of these seismotectronic parameters can provide some important clues in revealing the potential of future earthquakes in the KAFZ and surrounding it, and these anomaly areas can be interpreted as the possible areas of future earthquakes.

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