Özet:

One of the most important problems faced in Stokastic hydrology is the choice of the most suitable among the models that define the process being studied. In the presented study, using observed annual flows and derived synthetic series, the methods used in choosing the most suitable model were compared. In the tests, the models of AR(l), AR(2), AR(3), ARMA(l,1) and ARMA(1,2) were often used in hydrology. Ceyhan swimming pool, Tanır/Gözlerüstü (2015/25) current observation station annual average flow values and the results obtained in the studies in which synthetic series were used showed that the conformity measure has increased parallelly to the data length of perfonnansynm. In the second group studies, the performance of the conformity criteria, the community and statistical characteristics of the known thirty synthetic samples reduced and achieved results met.