Abstract:

The study is devoted to assessing the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in the manufacturing sector of Azerbaijan, a country rich in oil and gas resources. The study covers quarterly data from 2005-2021. The Johansen co-integration test and the Toda-Yamamota test are used to analyze temporal and causal characteristics between indicators. The results showed that there is no co-integration between financial development and growth in the long run. Along with this, no evidence was found indicating the presence of a causal relationship between variables in the short run. The results show that increased credit availability does not necessarily positively impact productivity and capital growth in the manufacturing sector. At the same time, the growth of loans contributes more to the growth of imports than to the growth of domestic production. The hypothesis about the negative impact of the "resource curse" on financial development is confirmed by financial market development in Azerbaijan, which makes it difficult to assess the securities market's impact on manufacturing sector growth. Research on the institutional aspects of financial regulation and finding ways to increase the relative attractiveness of the manufacturing sectors could provide more detailed recommendations to improve the effectiveness of financial instruments.

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