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Bu çalışmanın amacı son yıllarda yumurta üretiminde en fazla artışı gerçekleştiren Gaziantep ilinin 1991-2017 üretim verilerini ARIMA modelinde kullanarak 2018-2025 yıllarındaki üretim miktarını tahmin etmektir. ARIMA modelinin en uygun sonucunu vermesi için AIC, BIC, SSE, MSE, MPE gibi kriterlerden en çok kriteri gerçekleştiren model en uygun model olarak seçilmiştir. Çalışmada bu kriterlerden en fazlasını yerine getiren model ARIMA (1,1,1) olarak tespit edilmiştir. 1991 yılında 33.297 adet üretim yapan ilin 2017 yılındaki üretimi %2.393 kat artarak 829.976 adet üretime yükselmiş ve 2018-2025 yılları ortalamasına göre yıllık 1.169.549 adet yumurta üretileceği tahmin edilmiştir. Kullanılan ARIMA modelinde tahmin edilen değer ile gerçekleşen değer arasında bu 27 yıl toplamı dikkate alınınca -%2,37’lik bir değişim hesaplanmıştır. Genel itibariyle Gaziantep ilinin gelecek 8 yıldaki yumurta üretim ortalaması geçen 27 yıl ortalamasına göre %579,11’lik bir artış gerçekleştirecektir. Bu durumda Gaziantep ili Türkiye'de en fazla üretim artışını sağlayan il olacaktır. Gaziantep ilinin iklim şartlarının yumurta tavukçuluğuna uygun olması, yem sanayi bakımından gelişmiş olması ayrıca yumurta üretiminde önde gelen iller açısından kendisine çok yakın illerin olmaması maliyet avantajları sağlamaktadır. Yumurta üretiminde payını giderek artıran Gaziantep ilinde 2015-2019 yıllarında dört organik gübre tesisi kurulmuştur. Bu da gösteriyor ki ileriki yıllarda artan üretim ile beraber bu tesislerin sayı ve kapasite miktarlarının artacağı düşünülmektedir. Ayrıca diğer illerde olduğu gibi Gaziantep ilinde yumurtacılık alanında faaliyet gösteren işletmelerin kuş gribi ve COVİD-19 gibi tehlikelerin sürekli arz etmesi nedeniyle ileriki yıllarda ihracatta ve tüketici tercihlerinde sıkıntı yaşamaması için veterinerlik sertifikası ve benzeri kalite sertifikalarını alarak üretimlerine devam etmeleri gerekmektedir.
The aim of this study is to estimate the amount of production in the years 2018-2025 using the production data of the province of Gaziantep 1991-2017 which has made the largest increase in egg production in recent years. For the most suitable outcome of the ARIMA model, the model that fulfils the most criteria from criteria such as AIC, BIC, SSE, MSE, MPE has been selected as the most suitable model. The model that meets most of these criteria in the study was identified as ARIMA (1,1,1). In 1991, the production of 33,297 units in the year 2017 increased by 2,393 per cent to 829,976 units, and it is estimated that 1,169,549 units of eggs will be produced annually compared to the average of 2018-2025. When taking into account this total of 27 years between the estimated value and the occurring value in the ARIMA model used - a change of 2.37% was calculated. In general, the average egg production of the province of Gaziantep in the next 8 years will increase by 579.11% compared to the average of the last 27 years. In this case, Gaziantep will be the province that will provide the largest increase in production in Turkey. The climate conditions of the province of Gaziantep are in accordance with the eggs, the food industry is advanced and the cost benefits are provided by the province that is not very close to it in terms of the leading provinces in the production of eggs. In the province of Gaziantep, which increases its share in egg production, four organic fertilizer plants have been established in the years 2015-2019. This also shows that in the coming years, with the increase in production, the number and capacity of these facilities will be expected to increase. In addition, as in other provinces in the province of Gaziantep,
The aim of this study is to estimate egg production rate of Gaziantep province, having realized the most increase in egg production in recent years, in 2018-2025 periods by using data of 1991-2017 periods with ARIMA model. The model that fulfills them most criteria among AIC, BIC, SSE, MSE, MPE for getting rational inference from the ARIMA model was selected as the most appropriate model. The ARIMA (1,1,1) model that fulfills most of these criteria has been determined as the most suitable model in the study. The egg production amount of Gaziantep province in 1991 was 33.397 and reached to 829.976 eggs by increasing 2.393% in 2017 and it is estimated that 1.169.549 eggs will be produced per annum according to the average of 2018-2025 periods. -2.37 percent changes has been calculated between the estimated and actual amount when considered the 27 years in the ARIMA model. In general terms the average egg production of Gaziantep in the next 8 years will increase 579.11% compared to the average of the last 27 years. Well then, in that case Gaziantep province will have the most increased production in Turkey. Gaziantep province has cost advantages for reasons like suitable climatic conditions for egg poultry, having a well-developed feed industry and also not being close to the leading cities of egg production. Gaziantep province gradually increasing its share in egg production has four organic fertilizer plants which were established 2015-2019 years. This shows that it is thought that the number and capacity of these plants will increase with the growing production in the coming years. In addition, for the reason of still ongoing thread of bird flu and COVID-19 the firms enterprises in the field of egg production in Gaziantep and other provinces should continue their production by receiving veterinary and similar quality certificates for not to have troubles exportations and consumer preferences.
Alan : Eğitim Bilimleri; Filoloji; Güzel Sanatlar; Hukuk; İlahiyat; Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler; Spor Bilimleri
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
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