Özet:

The currency market is defined as the market where one country’s currency is traded with another country’s currency, and this market has become a global market where the currencies of different countries are changed. The currency crisis is a situation where the currency rate has lost significant value over a short period of time. The currency crisis has been the subject of a comprehensive economic literature both theoretically and empirically. Therefore, indicators have been created according to the signal approach to measure the degree of pressure on financial markets and forecast crises. The signal approach is believed to provide a early warning signal that the crisis may occur if a variable exceeds a certain threshold in the period before a crisis. The main objective of this study is to investigate the validity of the currency market pressure index developed by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) for Turkey in the period January 1999 - December 2019. In addition, the exchange market pressure index is the determination of the leading indicators that can lead to financial crises using the Logit model. The Model 7 has been statistically meaningful and the explanation power has been as high as required. The variables included in the model have a meaningful relationship between the Borsa Istanbul 100 Revenue Index (BIST), the Internal Debt Stock (IBS) and the Foreign Resident’s Stock Exchange Portfolio (YYHSP) and the Forex Market Printing Index.

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