Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between the historical separation method and export-growth in Turkey. The data used cover the real export and GDP data that are seasonally cleaned at a three-month frequency, and the period 1988:1-2019:4. In the period after 1980, the validity of the export-based growth hypothesis in Turkey was especially discussed by the historic separation method that has not previously been used in such studies. Thus, a more accurate overall result was achieved by producing time-changing shocks between the variables instead of producing combined results for the entire observation period. The findings obtained under the study show us that export growth has always a positive but relatively less impact on economic growth. On the other hand, we have come to the conclusion that an increase in economic growth does not reflect positively on exports during crisis periods, but in normal periods it seriously supports exports. However, especially in the periods of domestic crises, economic growth has seen a great impact on export growth. The analysis concluded that exports always supported growth, and growth supported exports outside the crisis periods.

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