Abstract:

The aim of this study is to predict the determinants of foreign trade of Turkey with N11 countries and to make policy recommendations in this direction. N11 (Next Eleven) countries consist of Turkey, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines and Vietnam. In the projections made with different macroeconomic and demographic indicators, it is estimated that most of the N11 countries (especially Turkey, Nigeria, South Korea and Vietnam) will surpass some of the G7 countries in 2050. In the study, the foreign trade flows of Turkey with the N11 countries were tried to be explained by the gravity model. According to the findings, Turkey's GDP affects exports negatively. However, it has a positive effect on imports. The opposite country's GDP has a positive effect on both exports and imports; the geographical distance between countries is that there is a negative effect. Another result obtained in the analysis shows that the common border and common religion dummy variables have a positive effect on foreign trade.

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