Özet:

Climate change is a global problem since many countries worldwide are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters. Numerous climate models in various studies project a decline in agricultural productivity that will mainly be due to excessive heat in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in Southeast Asia. As a Southeast Asian country, Malaysia is no exception to this problem. Hence, the present study aimed to examine the impact of climate change on rice yields in Malaysia. A panel data approach was adopted using data from 1987 to 2017 on eight granary areas in Peninsular Malaysia. The main objectives were to assess the impact of climate variables (i.e., minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation) on rice yield and the variance of the impact during the main season and off-season. Our regression results indicate that precipitation was not statistically significant in all model specifications for both the main and off-season. While the maximum temperature was found to be negatively associated with yield during the off-season, the minimum temperature showed a positive effect in both cropping seasons. We used the HadGEM3-GC31 N512 resolution model based on the high-emission Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 8.5 scenario (SSPs-8.5) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to project future climate change in 2030 and 2040. The projected results indicate that rice yield would show a more positive trend by 2040 when compared to the previous decade, ranging from −0.02 to 19.85% during the main season and −2.77 to 7.41% during the off-season. Although rice yield is likely to increase in certain areas, other areas are projected to experience negative effects. Hence, adaptation at the farm level remains crucial, specifically during the off-season, since climate change could widen the gaps in rice yields between cropping seasons and among granary areas.

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