Özet:

Volatility and movements of some economic variables are closely monitored by policy-makers since they have significant impacts on the main macroeconomic variables. Even though changes in prices of many commodities are closely monitored, global petroleum and food prices have a special place since they affect the entire economy. Petroleum and food prices are often disputable subjects, especially in emerging economies, because they are closely related to development processes and have inelastic demand structures. In this regard, petroleum and food prices, among other commodity prices, are the main sources of the pressure on consumer prices in Turkey. Therefore, the impacts of petroleum and food prices on consumer prices are examined using monthly data between January 2007 and December 2017 by structural vector autoregression (SVAR) method in this study. Shocks that occur due to reasons such as changes in policy implementations, economic crises, and price increases cannot be fully described by a certain variable in the VAR approach. Therefore, the impact of shocks can be determined incorrectly or incompletely in VAR method. To solve these problems, constraints for detecting the impacts of external shocks are imposed. These constraints are placed by the theory of economics.According to analysis results, both food and petroleum price shocks lead to domestic inflation in Turkey. However, while the inflation-boosting effect of a price shock in petroleum prices ceases to exist at the end of the sixth month, the inflation-boosting effect of a price shock in food prices is higher and it continues to rise until the third month by creating a hysteria effect.

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