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Doğurganlık analizleri genellikle gelecekteki doğurganlık tercihlerini göz önünde bulunduracak şekilde gerçekleştirilmemektedir. Oysaki gelecekteki doğurganlık tercihleri hem aile planlaması hem de hali hazırda uygulamada olan doğurganlığa yönelik politikaların güncellenmesi açısından dikkate alınması gereken bir durumdur. Bu çalışmada 2008 ve 2013 yılı Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması (TNSA) verileri kullanılarak doğurganlık analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Hanehalklarının gelecekteki doğurganlık tercihlerini dikkate alan ve almayan iki model oluşturulmuş ve bu modeller Genelleştirilmiş Poisson Regresyon Modeli ile tahmin edilmiştir. Hanehalklarının gelecekteki doğurganlık tercihini dikkate almayan standart modeller ile dikkate alan modelden elde edilen bulguların farklılık gösterdiği ortaya çıkmıştır. Hanehalkının gelecekteki doğurganlık tercihlerini dikkate alan modelde yaş, evlilik yaşı, istihdam durumu ve eş yaş değişkenlerinin katsayı işaretlerinin değiştiği görülmektedir. Bu nedenle politika yapıcılar doğurganlığa yönelik politika üretirken dikkatli davranmalıdırlar çünkü standart analizlerden elde edilen bulgular yanlış politika uygulamalarına yol açabilir.
Fertility analyses are often not performed in such a way as to take into account future fertility preferences. That future fertility preferences are a situation that should be taken into account in terms of both family planning and the updating of the policies for fertility that are currently in place. In this study, fertility analysis was carried out using data from the 2008 and 2013 Turkish Population and Health Research (TNSA). Two models have been created taking into account and not taking into account the future fertility preferences of their households, and these models have been predicted with the Generalized Poisson Regression Model. The findings obtained from the model that takes into account the standard models that do not take into account the future fertility preference of their households have shown differences. The model, which takes into account the future fertility preferences of the household, shows that age, marriage age, employment status and the rate of age variables are changed. Therefore, policy makers should be cautious when producing fertility policy because the findings obtained from standard analyses can lead to wrong policy practices.
Fertility analyzes are generally not carried out considering future fertility preferences. However, future fertility preferences should be considered in terms of both family planning and the updating of fertility policies currently in practice. In this study, fertility analysis was conducted using data from 2008 and 2013 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Two models have been created that take into account the future fertility preferences of households and these models have been estimated with the Generalized Poisson Regression Model. It was found that the standard models that do not take into account the future fertility preferences of the households and the findings obtained from the model taking into consideration differ. In the model that takes into account the future fertility preferences of households, it is seen that the coefficient signs of age, marriage age, employment status and husband age variables change. For this reason, policy-makers should be cautious when making a policy towards fertility, because findings from standard analyzes can lead to false policy practices.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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