Abstract:

There are three schools of thought concerning the economic effects of budget deficits: Neoclassical, Keynesian, and Ricardian. According to Neoclassical paradigm, budget deficits raise total lifetime consumption by shifting taxes to subsequent generations. In this case, saving deficit arises, and interest rates must then rise to bring capital markets into balance. Therefore, persistent budget deficits "crowd out" private capital accumulation. Keynesian paradigm has opposite thought about budget deficits. according to Keynesian school, budget deficits stimulate both consumption and national income. Thus, saving and capital accumulation are not adversely affected. Due to this discussion, the impact of the budget deficit on macroeconomic variables has been the subject of many studies. However, the current number of studies on the relationships between budget deficit, commercial loan interest rates and private sector fixed investments are inadequate. In this study, the relationships between budget deficit, commercial loan interest rate, and private sector fixed investment are analyzed by econometric methods and by using data covering 2001-2017 in Turkey. Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests were performed to determine whether the variables are stable at the same level or not. The Johansen Cointegration Test was applied to test for a long-term relationship between the variables. The Granger Causality Test was applied to determine the causality relationship between the variables.  

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