Türkiye ekonomisi gibi gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde döviz kuru birçok makroekonomik faktörü etkilemektedir. Buna karşın döviz kurunu da etkileyen birçok ekonomik faktör bulunmaktadır. Son dönemlerde yaşanan döviz kurlarındaki dalgalanmalar, döviz kurunu etkileyen faktörlerin önemini artırmıştır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde döviz kurunu belirleyen etmenler araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada 2003M01-2018M06 dönemini kapsayan aylık verilerle ARDL sınır testi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmanın ilgili literatüre katkısı iki yönlüdür. Birincisi, güncel verilerle analiz yapılmıştır. İkincisi, daha önce yapılmış çalışmalardan farklı olarak analize, Merkez Bankası döviz rezervleri değişkeni dahil edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda, döviz kuru ile seçilen makroekonomik değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Uzun dönemde BİST, cari açık, dış ticaret açığı, M2, Merkez Bankası döviz rezervi ve TÜFE değişkenleri döviz kuruna pozitif etki yaparken, faiz değişkeni negatif etki yapmaktadır.
Excessive fluctuations in exchange rates for Turkish economy has experienced recently. This situation makes it important to investigate the factors affecting the exchange rate. In this study, the factors that determine the exchange rate in the Turkey's economy have been investigated. In the study, the ARDL bound test was applied with monthly data (2003M01-2018M06). The contribution of the study to the related literature is twofold. Firstly, an analysis was made with current data. Secondly, the Central Bank foreign exchange reserves variable was included in the analysis. As a result of the study, it was determined that there is a long-term relationship between the exchange rate and the macroeconomic variables selected. In the short and long term, the current account deficit, the foreign trade deficit, the Central Bank FX reserves and the CPI variables had a positive effect on the exchange rate. The effect of interest variable on exchange rate was determined as negative.
Excessive fluctuations in exchange rates for Turkish economy has experienced recently. This situation makes it important to investigate the factors affecting the exchange rate. In this study, the factors that determine the exchange rate in Turkey's economy has been investigated. In the study, ARDL bound test was applied with monthly data (2003M01-2018M06). The contribution of the study to the related literature is twofold. Firstly, an analysis was made with current data. Secondly, the Central Bank foreign exchange reserves variable was included in the analysis. As a result of the study, it was determined that there is a long-term relationship between the exchange rate and the macroeconomic variables selected. In the short and long term, the current account deficit, the foreign trade deficit, the Central Bank FX reserves and the CPI variables had a positive effect on the exchange rate. The effect of interest variable on exchange rate was determined as negative.
Alan : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
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