Özet:

The rapid growth of the emerging economies of Asia, especially since 2002, raised hopes among development experts that from now on an economic downturn in the developed West would not result in a protracted recession because the emerging Asia would be able to cushion the fall. Thus, when the sub-prime mortgage crisis hit the USA in the summer of 2007, it did not appreciably slow down the pace of growth in the economies of the emerging countries. The picture changed dramatically in the last quarter of 2008 with the collapse of the financial markets in the USA, and the U.K., followed by crises in other developed countries of Europe and Japan. The percentage declines in the securities markets indices of the developed as well as the emerging markets have been quite severe, to say the least. This paper examines the causes, extent and ramification of the crises in the global financial markets with a view to decipher the varied paths that a recovery of the markets would likely to take. It asserts that some of the emerging markets, such as Brazil, China, India, and possibly Turkey, are likely to weather the crises better, yet very unlikely to enjoy the rapid rate of growth that they got accustomed to in recent years. It suggests that the economies that are based on exports of oil, gas, and other commodities, are likely to face an uphill battle in achieving a sustained level of economic growth in coming years.

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