Abstract:

In this study in Turkey, the psychological factors affecting the Stock Exchange Istanbul 100 index have been analyzed econometrically. For this purpose, the closing values of the BIST100 index for the 2004:M01-2018:M04 period, the VIX fear index in the U.S. and the Consumer Trust Index in Turkey were used. Long-term analyses have shown that the increase in the fear index has reduced the stock exchange index in accordance with theoretical expectations, while the increase in the consumer trust index has shown that the stock exchange has a reducing effect in a manner that is not in accordance with theoretical expectations. In short-term analysis, both the fear index and the trust index have an impact on the stock exchange in a direction that is consistent with theoretical expectations. When long- and short-term analyses were evaluated together, it was found that the fear index had a reducing effect on the stock exchange in both periods, and the trust index was mostly effective in the short-term. Therefore, it can be said that individuals trading on the exchange and the representatives of the intermediate institutions should present their attitudes in a short period to take into account the negative and positive effects of VIX and TGE; in a long period, they should present their attitudes in a considerable direction as well as the highly likely VIX as well as the macroeconomic variables.

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