Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to analyse the economic impact of Syrian forced migration on Turkish economy. In order to assess the response of macroeconomic variables to the influx of Syrian refugees, we resort to Difference-in-Differences method. We compare Turkish provinces on the basis of three macroeconomic indicators -unemployment, inflation, and production- before and after forced migration occurred. We find that forced migration increased inflation and production significantly. In particular, housing prices rise considerably with Syrian migration. We estimate that 1% rise in migrant population raises both inflation and production by more than 1%. We find statistically insignificant coefficients for unemployment. In addition, impact of forced migration displays regional differences. Regions with clustered industrial production are affected positively by the influx of Syrian migrants. Despite positive impact on industry clusters, findings indicate some deterioration of macroeconomic indicators of rural sectors.

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