Özet:

In this study, the events related to official crime that have taken place in Turkey between 2005:01 and 2011:12, in monthly frequency, are tried to be explained. The effects of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Unemployment (UNE) disaggregated by level of education on to the number of crimes were discussed. It has been observed that there is no long-run relationship among the number of crimes, Consumer Price Index and total unemployment when they are considered together. However, we observe a bivariate cointegration between the number of crimes and the total unemployment. Then, the analysis was repeated with the total number of unemployed status arranged in eight different levels of education. It has been observed that the level of education is an important factor determining the number of committed crimes. In the study; the long-term relationship has been tested with Engle-Granger (1987) and Johansen cointegration methods. Another finding of the analysis is that the seasonality has significant effects on the results. For this reason, seasonal dummies were added as exogenously to the models. 

Anahtar Kelimeler: