Abstract:

With Turkey, has switched to floating exchange regime from fixed exchange rate regime, it has been a well-known fact that it has had a significant progress of being an active market. With the change in exchange system of the country, its central bank’s foreign currency reserves have increased. In addition, floating exchange rate regime and a freely determined exchange rate in the market seem to follow an upward trend. Naturally, the changes of the exchange rates and the amount of reserves in the global market cause a pressure in the foreign exchange market in national economies. Especially after the global economic crisis in 2008, this pressure was felt quite severely in many economies. In this study, it is aimed to measure and estimate the pressure of exchange market in Turkey. In the analysis, two different exchange market pressure models are developed over the period of 2005-201, and these models are estimated by artificial neural network. When the findings of the models estimating the exchange market pressure are compared to each other, it is seen that the model developed by Weymark has been more successful in terms of the results from estimating the exchange market pressure.

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