Abstract:

Kazdağı (Mt. Ida) is important in terms of climate change studies due to its different climate and social structure on both slopes as well as its natural resources. It is aimed to estimate plausible changes in annual mean temperatures in study area until 2099. It is expected that determined temperature changes in Mt.Ida will contribute to the sustainability of its natural and social richness and to the efforts on climate change. In this study, it is used the annual mean temperature values of 1971-2000 reference period and regional climate model outputs of 2016-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 periods both RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios obtained from Turkish State Meteorological Service. Calculated station values were interpolated to the surface of Mt. Ida at 10mx10m sized and modelled to topography in Geographical Information Systems and the temperature distribution maps were produced. According to RCP4.5 scenario findings, 80% of the study area has had 16-210C temperature range by the year 2099, while 86% of that area was 10-160C temperature range in reference period. As to RCP8.5 scenario findings, the 16-220C temperature range has been 82% by the year 2099, while 86% of that area was 10-160C temperature range in 1971-2000.

Keywords: