Abstract:

Since the tourism sector is highly sensible to the factors affecting touristic product and services, it gives a significant importance to demand forecasting and analyses of the factors that affect the demand. This study aims to model the tourism demand of European countries, which have an important share of the Turkish tourism market. For this study, Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) Model was used and the forecasting parameters were compared with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) outcomes. Addition to that, factors affecting European Countries’ tourism demand was analyzed and these countries were compared according to these factors. As a result of this study, parameter estimates of SUR model are more efficient than classical regression model parameter estimates. This study recommends SUR model, which is not widely used around the world and doesn’t take part in studies in Turkey to determine the tourism politics and tourism projection works, can be used as a decision method

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