Abstract:

Export-led growth hypothesis has been discussed in theoretical and empirical levels. Lots of studies in the literature analyze the export-led growth hypothesis using symmetric Granger causality tests. However, both symmetric and asymmetric causality tests are used in this study. The analysis consists of imports, exports and industrial production variables of Turkey in the period of 1997:1-2013:4. To achieving findings, causal relations between the three variables are asymmetric. Therefore achieving findings in the paper which is using symmetric causality tests may be an illusion. Furthermore the findings indicate that exports did not raise the industrial production in a sustainable manner, since exports and production are dependent on imports. So the export-led growth hypothesis in long-term is not supported in this study. The findings achieving in this study imply that import dependent export and production structure should be break up to occur the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey

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