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Bu çalışmada Ocak 2011-Haziran 2019 dönemi için, güven ve borsa endeksleri arasındaki sektörel bazlı ilişkiler araştırılmaktadır. Finansal hizmet güven endeksi, hizmet sektörü güven endeksi, inşaat sektörü güven endeksi, perakende ticaret sektörü güven ve borsa endeksleri değişkenlerine ait aylık veriler, ilgili dönemde ilk olarak, Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) testiyle simetrik nedensellik, ikinci olarak, Hatemi-J (2012) testiyle asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisi açılarından incelenmiştir. Yapılan testler sonucunda edinilen bulgulara göre Türkiye’de sektörel güven endeksleri ile ilgili Borsa İstanbul (BİST) sektör endeksleri arasında simetrik bir nedensellik ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilememiştir. Buna karşın, bu değişkenler arasında asimetrik bir nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır. Diğer bir ifadeyle, sektörel güven endeksleri ile borsa sektör endeksleri arasında doğrudan bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmazken, bu değişkenlerin bileşenleri üzerinden bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Güven Endeksi, Borsa Sektör Endeksi, Simetrik Nedensellik, Asimetrik Nedensellik JEL Sınıflandırması: G19, G23, G40
In this study, for the period January 2011-June 2019, the reliability and stock index sector-based relations are investigated. Financial services trust index, service sector trust index, construction sector trust index, retail sector trust and stock index variables monthly data, in the relevant period, first, the Haker and Hatemi-J (2006) test and second, the Hatemi-J (2012) test and the asymmetric causality relationship aspects have been studied. According to the findings obtained as a result of the tests, the existence of a symmetrical causal relationship between the sector index of Borsa Istanbul (BIST) related to the sector trust in Turkey has not been identified. However, an asymmetrical causal relationship has been established between these variables. In other words, whereas there is no direct causal relationship between industry trust indicators and stock sector indicators, there is a causal relationship through the components of these variables. Keywords: Trust Index, Stock Industry Index, Simmetric Cause, Asymmetric Cause JEL Classification: G19, G23, G40
In this study, sector-based relationships between confidence indices and stock exchange indices are investigated for January 2011-June 2019 period. Monthly data sets on financial service confidence index, service confidence index, construction confidence index, retail trade confidence, and stock market indices are firstly analyzed by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) test. Secondly, they are examined in terms of asymmetric causality relationship with Hatemi-J (2012) test. According to the findings obtained as a result of the tests; the existence of a symmetric causality relationship between the sectoral confidence indices and related Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) sector indices could not be identified in Turkey. However, an asymmetric causality relationship is found between these variables. In other words, while there is no direct causal relationship between sectoral confidence indices and stock market sector indices, there is a causality relationship through the components of these variables. Key Words: Confidence Index, Stock Exchange Sector Index, Symmetric Causality, Asymmetric Causality JEL Classification: G19, G23, G40
Journal Type : Ulusal
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