Özet:

Individual banking is one of the active areas of the banks as a rapidly developing service branch. The individual credit offered under the name of the individual banking provides the possibility of obtaining all kinds of needs with the privileges it has offered to individuals. The big difference that distinguishes individual loans from commercial loans is that the loan to be used is outside commercial purposes. The diversity of services offered in individual loans increases every day, and the interest in these loans is increasing. The banks provide the flow of information and information they need and plan their future strategies by evaluating their past performance. Especially in individual loans, monitoring the financial situation, controlling reimbursements, determining credit risk management policies and addressing the bank’s progress in various aspects are vital for the future durability of the bank. The objective of this study is to predict for future periods related to the use of individual loans and the potential risk of these loans. For this purpose, according to the January-June 2018 period information, the banks have been addressed to estimate the individual credit use and related risks by December 2018. For the application, the Gray Prediction GM(1.1) model has been selected. GM(1.1) models were established with the data and then the simulation values were obtained. The average relative errors of the data are calculated with the achieved simulation values. The model accuracy test with calculated relative errors has been checked and the future period estimates have been obtained. As a result, the forecast values obtained by the GM(1.1) model for the future periods of individual credit use and risk have been interpreted.

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