Abstract:

This study aims to identify the demand that a educational and research hospital may arise in the coming years to the mental health and disease clinic of children and adults. To this goal, the Gray Prediction Model GM(1,1), the Simple Upper Correction Model, the Upper Modeling and the Direct Regression Model were used. The research data consists of seven-year demand arising between 2012-2018. The estimates were made through gender and age variables. The estimated performance of the models is measured by the average absolute percentage error (mean absolute percentage error-MAPE) and root average square error-RMSE. The comparisons have found that GM(1.1) (MAPE = 8.82 for the total; RMSE = 3487) performed better than other models. Therefore, the future forecast was made with the GM(1.1) model. As a result, the demand for the clinic specified between 2019 and 2023 is expected to increase every year in terms of gender, both women and men; in terms of age, both under 18 years and over 18 years and in terms of total number of patients, and in 2023 it will reach 90.173 people.

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