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Yüksek enflasyon, faiz oranları, cari açık, zayıf büyüme, sıcak paraya bağımlılık, düşük kredi notları ve zayıf bütçe dengesi vb. gibi çeşitli sorunlu makroekonomik değişkenlerinden dolayı kırılgan beşli denilen Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya, G.Afrika ve Türkiye’de cari denge ve enerji ilişkisi önem arz etmektedir. Bu nedenle, kırılgan beşlide net enerji ithalatçısı olan üç ülkenin (Brezilya, Hindistan ve Türkiye) cari denge (cari denge/GSYH), yenilenebilir enerji (yenilenebilir elektrik üretimi/toplam üretim) ve net enerji ithalatı (enerji ithalatı/toplam enerji kullanımı) değişkenlerinin ilişkilerinin analizi yapılacaktır (G.Afrika ve Endonezya net enerji ihracatçısıdır). Beklenen sonuç; bu ülkelerde yenilenebilir enerji kullanımı (yatırımları) arttıkça, cari dengede iyileşme sağlanması ve enerji ithalatının azalmasıdır. Çalışmada anılan üç ülke için, 1990-2017 yılları arasında cari denge, yenilenebilir enerji ve enerji ithalatı arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Üç ülkede seriler ADF sonuçlarına göre; Hindistan’da yenilenebilir enerji ile Brezilya’da cari denge I(0) iken diğer tüm seriler I(1) düzeyinde durağandır. Türkiye için yapılan VAR modeli sonuçlarına göre; seriler arasında eşbütünleşme vardır, enerji ithalatındaki %1’lik artış, cari dengede %-0.27’lik bozulmaya yol açacaktır. Enerji ithalatından cari dengeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Hindistan için yapılan ARDL Sınır Testine göre, kısa dönemde enerji ithalatındaki %1’lik artış, cari dengede %-0.39’luk bozulmaya yol açacaktır. Hata düzeltme modeline göre katsayısı eşbütünleşmeyi desteklemektedir. Brezilya için yapılan ARDL Sınır Testine göre, kısa dönemde yenilenebilir enerjide %1’lik artış, cari dengede %0.23’lük düzelmeye yol açacaktır. katsayısının negatif ve istatistiksel anlamlılılığı eşbütünleşmeyi desteklemektedir.
Because of the various problematic macroeconomic variables such as high inflation, high interest rates, high current account deficit, weak growth, hot Money dependency, low credit ratings and weak budget balance and so on current account balance and energy relations is of great importance in Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey are called fragile five. Therefore, the three countries that are net energy importers in fragile five (Brazil, India and Turkey) current account balance (current account balance / GDP), renewable energy (renewable electricity production / total production) and net energy imports (energy imports / total energy use) variables relations will be analyzed (S. Africa and Indonesiaare net energy exporters). The expected result is that as renewable energy use (investments) increases in these countries, the current account balance will improve and energy imports will decrease. For the three countries mentioned, the relationship between the current balance, renewable nergy and energy imports between 1990 and 2017 was examined. According to the results of the ADF series in three countries; renewable energy in India, and the current balance in Brazil is I(0), while all other series are stable at I(1). According to the VAR model results for Turkey; There is cointegration between the series, a 1% increase in energy imports will cause a deterioration of -0.27% in the current balance. Unidirectional causality from energy imports to the current balance was found. According to the ARDL Border Test for India and Brazil, a 1% increase in energy imports in India in the short term will lead to a -0.39% deterioration in the current account balance. A 1% increase in renewable energy in Brazil will result in a 0.23% improvement in the current account balance. In both countries, the negative and statistical significance of the coefficient in the short term supports cointegration
Because of the various problematic macroeconomic variables such as high inflation, high interest rates, high current account deficit, weak growth, hot Money dependency, low credit ratings and weak budget balance and so on current account balance and energy relations is of great importance in Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and the Turkey are called fragile five. Therefore, the three countries that are net energy importers in fragile five (Brazil, India and Turkey) current account balance (current account balance / GDP), renewable energy (renewable electricity production / total production) and net energy imports (energy imports / total energy use) variables relations will be analyzed (S. Africaand Indonesiaare net energy exporters). The expected result is that as renewable energy use (investments) increase in these countries, the current account balance will improve and energy imports will decrease. For the three countries mentioned, the relationship between the current balance, renewablee nergy and energy imports between 1990 and 2017 was examined. According to the results of ADF series in three countries; renewable energy in India, and the current balance in Brazil is I(0), while all other series are stable at I(1). According to the VAR model results for Turkey; There is cointegration between the series, a 1% increase in energy imports will cause a deterioration of -0.27% in the current balance. Unidirectional causality from energy imports to the current balance was found. According to the ARDL Border Test for India and Brazil, a 1% increase in energy imports in India in the short term will lead to a -0.39% deterioration in the current account balance. A 1% increase in renewable energy in Brazil will result in a 0.23% improvement in the current account balance. In both countries, the negative and statistical significance of the coefficient in the short term supports cointegration
Alan : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
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