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Bu çalışmada, ülke ekonomileri için en önemli makroekonomik göstergelerden olan döviz kuru, dış ticaret ve yoksulluk kavramları ele alınmıştır. Çalışmanın temel amacı Afganistan için döviz kuru, dış ticaret ve yoksulluk arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Afganistan’a ait 2006-2016 yılları arası çeyrek dönem; döviz kuru, ihracat, ithalat, reel GDP büyüme oranı ve insani gelişme endeksi verileri kullanılarak ARDL sınır testi yöntemi ile uzun ve kısa dönem analizi yapılmıştır. Uzun dönem analizi sonucu ihracat ve döviz kuru arasında negatif ve anlamlı bir ilişkinin olduğu, insani gelişme endeksi ve büyüme göstergesinin döviz kuru ile pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki sergilediği ve ithalat değişkeni ile döviz kuru arasında uzun dönemde herhangi bir ilişkinin olmadığı görülmüştür. Kısa dönemde sadece insani gelişme endeksi ile döviz kuru arasında olumsuz bir ilişkinin olduğu ve diğer üç açıklayıcı değişken ile döviz kuru arasında herhangi bir ilişkinin olmadığı tespit edilmiştir.
In this study, we discussed the concepts of exchange rate, foreign trade and poverty, which are important macroeconomic indicators for the country’s economies. The main objective of the study is to explore the relationship between foreign trade and poverty for Afghanistan. The quarter period between 2006-2016 of Afghanistan; exchange rate, exports, imports, real GDP growth rate and human development index data were used for long and short term analysis with the ARDL border test method. The long-term analysis found that there was a negative and meaningful relationship between export and exchange rate, that the human development index and growth indicator showed a positive and meaningful relationship with exchange rate, and that there was no long-term relationship between import exchange rate and exchange rate. In the short period, there was only a negative relationship between the human development index and the exchange rate and there was no relationship between the other three explanatory variables and the exchange rate.
The concepts of exchange rate, foreign trade and poverty, which are among the most important macroeconomic indicators in a country economy, are discussed in this study. The main objective of this study is to examine the relationship between exchange rate, foreign trade and poverty variables in Afghanistan. Long and short term analysis was performed between the period of 2006-2016 for Afghanistan by ARDL boundary test method using quarter period data of exchange rate, export, import, real GDP growth rate and human development index data. There is negative and meaningful relationship between export and exchange rate, positive and significant relationship of human development index and growth indicator with the exchange rate and there is no long-term relationship between the import variable and the exchange rate as a result of long-term analysis. In the short term analysis there is just a negative relationship between the human development index and the exchange rate and there is no relationship between the other three explanatory variables with the exchange rate.
Field : Ziraat, Orman ve Su Ürünleri; Spor Bilimleri
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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