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Tarım her ülkede olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de büyük öneme sahiptir. Özelikle tarımsal üretimde ürün verimliliği ve çeşitliliğinin sağlanmasını ve buna göre dış ticarette üstünlük sağlanması çok önemlidir. Türkiye’nin tarımsal dış ticaretine bakıldığında bir dalgalanma söz konusu olmasına rağmen bugüne kadar ağırlıklı olarak tarımsal dış ticaret fazlası verildiği görülmektedir. Ancak bu fazlalığın ne kadar ülkenin tarımsal potansiyeline yakın olduğu ve gelecek dönemlerde sağlanıp sağlanamayacağı tartışılmaktadır. Türkiye’de tarım sektörü dış ticaretini konu alan bu çalışmada TÜİK’ten alınan 1998-2018/4 tarımsal dış ticaret verileri yardımı ile Türkiye’nin 2018-2023 yılları arası tarımsal dış ticareti aylık bazda tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Tahmin yöntemi olarak üstel düzleştirme yöntemi ve bu yöntemin mevsimsel etkilerini de göz önünde bulunduran holt-winter metodu kullanılmıştır. Türkiye’nin tarımsal dış ticaretine konu dört ana kalem ve bu kalemlere ilişkin 1998-2018/4 yıllarını kapsayan 256 dönem tahmin yönteminin veri setini oluşturmuştur. Çalışma sonucunda 2023 yılına gelindiğinde Türkiye’nin tarımsal dış ticaretinden ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı hesaplanmış ve buna göre yıllar içinde ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranının düşüş göstereceği tahmin edilmiştir.
Agriculture has also a great importance in Turkey as in every country. The providing product efficiency and diversity especially in agricultural production and accordingly TO gain advantage over foreign trade is very important. Although there is no fluctuation in Turkey's agricultural foreign trade, foreign trade surplus has been predominantly had until today. But, to which extend this surplus reflects the actual agricultural potential of the country and whether it can be obtained in the next periods are controversial. The agricultural foreign trade of Turkey covering the period of 2018-2023 was tried to be estimated on a monthly basis through the agricultural foreign trade data of the period of 1998-2018/4 obtained from the TSI in this study which is about foreign trade of the agricultural sector. Exponential smoothing method and holt-winter method that consider the seasonal effects of exponential smoothing method were used as an estimation method in the study. Four main items of agricultural foreign trade of Turkey and 256 terms covering 1998-2018/4 years concerning these items constituted the data set of the estimation method.In consequence of the study, the import coverage ratio of export in 2023 was calculated from Turkey's foreign trade rate, and accordingly, it was estimated that import coverage ratio of export will decline over the years.
Agriculture has also a great importance in Turkey as in every country. The providing product efficiency and diversity especially in agricultural production and accordingly TO gain advantage over foreign trade is very important. Although there is no fluctuation in Turkey’s agricultural foreign trade, foreign trade surplus has been predominantly had until today. But, to which extend this surplus reflect actual agricultural potential of the country and whether it can be obtained in next periods are controversial. The agricultural foreign trade of Turkey covering the period of 2018-2023 was tried to be estimated on a monthly basis through the agricultural foreign trade data of the period of 1998-2018/4 obtained from TSI in this study which is about foreign trade of agricultural sector. Exponential smoothing method and holt-winter method that considers the seasonal effects of exponential smoothing method were used as an estimation method in the study. Four main items of agricultural foreign trade of Turkey and 256 terms covering 1998-2018/4 years concerning these items constituted the data set of the estimation method.In consequence of the study, the import coverage ratio of export in 2023 was calculated from Turkey’s foreign trade rate, and accordingly, it was estimated that import coverage ratio of export will decline over years.
Alan : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
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