Abstract:

The gap in search transactions is an important tool for ensuring macroeconomic balance in both developed and developing countries. It has made it even more important, especially in recent periods, to find out that the currency gap is also a crisis indicator. The existence of search trade disadvantages is generally a situation caused by a country spending more than the income, investing more than the savings, the difference between goods and services exports and imports, or by the decline in its net external assets. From the point of view of the economies, rather than the existence of trade gap, the cause and how it is funded or sustainability is the subject of discussion. In this study, prepared to clarify this issue, the sustainability of the trade gap in Turkey is analyzed using the periodic budget limit (balance) model developed by Husted (1992) with monthly data from the period 1992:1-2017:10. The ADF unit root test, which uses export and import variables, has been tested for whether the carrier process gap is sustainable, with Johansen integration test, Engle-Granger integration and error correction models. The Johansen Integration test found that there was a combination relationship between the series and that the long-term combination rate was 0.77, so import expenditure was satisfied by 77% of export revenues. In this case, as the ratio is less than one, according to the Husted (1992) and Quintos (1995) models, the carrier gap in the relevant period in Turkey has been found to be sustainable in weak form.

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