Abstract:

In this study, the Stokastic models of the annual average currents measured at the 1611, 1612 and 1622 current observation stations operated by the EIE in the Central Anadolu Closed Pool were modeled. The methodology of the autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive (ARMA) models of the annual average currents of the stations has been achieved with mathematical explanations.The study of the corelogram and the partial corelogram has conducted a preliminary assessment of the potential autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model type. According to the results of the analysis, the most suitable autoregressive model for the annual average current series of the current observation stations examined in each three-stations is the most suitable autoregressive moving average model for the AR(1), 1611 and 1612 stations, and the most suitable autoregressive moving average model for the ARMA(1,1), and the 1622 stations is the ARMA(2,1). 50 pieces of synthetic series with the same length of N with the observation period of each station using the later established models were produced. The statistical characteristics of these synthetic series (such as average, standard deviation, fragility ratio, corelogram) are calculated and compared with the statistical characteristics of the historical (original) series. As a result, it has been observed that the stocastic models in each of the three stations retain the statistical characteristics of historical series.

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