Abstract:

In the framework of the study, the price ballons in the goods prices were tested with the SADF and GASDF tests. As a period of study, the pandemic period, in which price volatilities are intense, was addressed, the first date of the pandemic start was selected from 17.11.2019 to 26.06.2022. It is also important that the war between Russia and Ukraine, which is between the two countries with an important place in the world's energy and agricultural production, which began on 24 February 2022 and is still ongoing (Russia's occupation of Ukraine) is also in the working period. For the beginning of the war and the end of the intense sanctions on Russia, it is undoubted that it has also played a significant role in the price volatility in the global sense.

In the framework of the study, the price movements in the gold, silver, petroleum, natural gas, DJ-Thal Index, DJ-Metal Index and DJ-Tom Goods Index series have been tested by both SADF and GSDAF tests. In both tests, the price ballons were found in the silver, oil, DJ-Tahil and DJ-Tüm Emtia index, while the GSADF test, unlike the SADF test, also found multiple price ballons in the DJ-Metal index. Both tests did not identify ballons in gold prices, and the GSDAF test did not identify ballons in natural gas series, unlike the SADF test. The findings of the research have shown that many goods were formed in the period of the pandemic, meaning that prices were determined to be distracted from the basic value, and this situation can be seen as an indicator of market failure.

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