Abstract:

This study aims to determine the potential effects of variables affecting the emission amount by assessing the quantities of CO2 emissions in Turkey during the period 1980-2014 in the framework of the level values foreseen under the Kyoto Protocol. The variables taken to be assessed in the application performed using probit analysis consist of direct foreign investments, foreign trade and the number of tourists coming. The focus is that in the study of the state of the CO2 emissions considered reasonable under the Kyoto Protocol, the use of dependent doll variable, which remains below the forecast marginal value and is categorized in the years that this level has been exceeded, has been preferred. Under this framework, the years remaining below the relevant threshold levels are considered reasonable for carbon emissions and are considered positive for the country. In this assessment for Turkey, the marginal effect calculations of the variables were carried out in a geographical manner and the potential impact of the variables on the possibility of remaining below the marginal value for carbon emissions was studied. According to the results from the analysis, the decrease in foreign direct investment/GDP and foreign trade/GDP rates, the observed increase in the number of tourists arriving in the country, increased the likelihood of CO2 emissions remain below the margin. These findings are of extreme importance for the evaluation of the variables that may affect the observed increases in CO2 emissions that exceed the limit value. Since the need for many steps for sustainable ecological balance has been accepted globally, the level of sensitivity to the planned measures differs from country to country.

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