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Dış ticaret yapan firmaların bu süreçte karşılaştıkları önemli sorunlardan biride kur riskidir. Döviz kurunda, önceden tahmin edilemeyen değişmeler, firmaların karlılığını ve maliyetlerini olumsuz etkilerken, bu riskten korunmak için firmalar başta vadeli işlemler olmak üzere çeşitli önlemler almaktadır. Bir firmanın döviz kurunu önceden başarılı tahmin edebilmesi döviz kurunun ilişki içinde olduğu değişkenlerin takibi ile alakalı olmakla birlikte firmayı kur riskinden koruyabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, uygulanan anket sonucunda firmalar, özellikle uluslararası literatürde kur riskinden korunmada en sık kullanılan yöntem olan vadeli işlemler hakkında bilgilerinin olmadığını beyan ederken, firma yöneticilerinin finansal okuryazarlık eğitimi alması, Amerikan ekonomik verilerinin takibi, döviz kurunun faiz oranından etkilendiğine dair düşüncedeki artış, tahminde grafik analizleri kullanımdaki artış döviz kuru tahmininde başarı yönünde bir eğilime neden olurken, gün içinde döviz kurunu sık takibi döviz kurunu tahmininde başarısız yönde eğilime neden olmuştur. Çalışmada anket yoluyla elde edilen veriler Logit modeli yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir.
One of the major problems of foreign trade companies is exchange rate risk. While unpredictable changes in exchange rates are negatively affecting the profitability and costs of companies, companies take some measures, primarily in futures, to protect from this risk. A company's ability to forecast the exchange rate successfully in advance, related to follow up variables that have relationship with exchange rate and this ability can protect the company from exchange rate risk. According to the survey result, while the companies are declaring illiterate about futures which is the most commonly used method to hedge against currency risk in international literacy and while having education about financial literacy by companies manager, following up American economic variables, increasing in the idea that the foreign exchange rate is affected by the interest rate, increasing in the use of graphical analysis on forecast leads to a trend toward success in the exchange rate forecast, frequent follow-up of exchange rate during the day causes the failure to forecast the exchange rate. In the study, the data obtained by the surwey were analyzed with the Logit model.
One of important problems of foreign trade companies is exchange rate risk. While unpredictable changes in exchange rate are negatively affecting the profitability and costs of firms, companies take some measures, primarily in futures, to protect from this risk. A company’s ability to forecast the exchange rate successfully in advance, related to follow up variables which have relationship with exchange rate and this ability can protect the firm from exchange rate risk. According to survey result, while the companies are declaring illiterate about futures which is the most commonly used method to hedge against currency risk in international literacy and while having education about financial literacy by companies manager, following up American economic variables, increasing in the idea that the foreign exchange rate is affected by the interest rate, increasing in the use of graphical analysis on forecast lead to a trend toward success in the exchange rate forecast, frequent follow-up of exchange rate during the day cause the failure to forecast the exchange rate. In the study, the data obtained by the surwey were analyzed with the Logit model.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Ulusal
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