Özet:

: The main purpose of this study is to assess the farm-level economic consequences of the planned introduction of a ban on farrowing crates for sows in the EU pig sector, being a response by the European Commission to the ‘End the Cage Age’ Initiative. The impact assessment was carried out in three stages: farm-level analyses based on 225 farm surveys carried out in EU member states and expert consultations, assessments for five alternative scenarios, and the aggregation (scaling-up) of the scenario analysis to the EU-27 sectoral impact. Our findings indicate that the ban on farrowing crates is expected to cause a decrease in the sow population by 21–23%, depending on the scenario, and piglet output in the EU owing to increased sow space requirements, a reduction in production efficiency, and a significant demand for investments. The transition to alternative farrowing systems will lead to increased variable costs related to the farrowing period, namely, veterinary expenses, labour costs, and sow feed costs, as well as expenses associated with higher piglet mortality and increased sow replacement rates. The lower density, resulting from the larger space allowance per sow in free-farrowing systems (approximately 5.5 m 2 in free farrowing with temporary confinement and 7 m 2 in systems without confinement) will also cause fixed costs per unit (per sow or piglet) to rise in proportion to the decline in the sow herd. Expressed as a percentage of the total production costs per piglet, we can expect a 6–10% increase in the total production costs. The implementation of free-farrowing systems on pig farms will necessitate investments in the modernisation of the existing buildings and new pens for sows. Depending on the scenario, the value of investments ranged from 3.8 to 6.7 billion EUR, at 2021 prices. It should be recognised that beyond the actual improvement in the welfare of sows, there are lingering concerns, including increased production costs, higher piglet mortality rates, and heightened risks to employees. It is essential to consider providing financial assistance to support farms in making a smooth transition to the new systems, as well as an extended transition period to ensure a painless shift.

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