Abstract:

Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the greatest obstacles to security and stability in the South Caucasus. Despite the fact that the Armenia-Azerbaijani, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict started about 30 years there was no resolution for this conflict and was not expected until recently. Continuing occupation of 20% of the Azerbaijani lands by Armenia was increasing the likelihood of getting a new war. Another provocative activity of Armenia caused a sudden war. In this article was analyzed such issues in depth. In general, when analyzing the real situation in both world politics and the South Caucasus, the point arises: if any behavior or action is not in favor of the superpowers, its compliance with international law goes into the background, and those forces take the appropriate step. That is, the great powers see themselves as an "exception factor." This is the "World Order" of the Great Powers, and the world order is determined not by international law and institutions, but by the ratio of the power potentials of key geopolitical players. The problems in the South Caucasus, especially the Karabakh issue, need to be approached in the same context. It can be concluded that a complete solution to the "Karabakh issue" is not in Russia's current interests. Because Moscow wants to take advantage of the problem and keep the international activities and regional policy of both countries under its influence. As in some post-Soviet countries, the one-time settlement of existing conflicts and disputes in the South Caucasus republics and the establishment of lasting peace in the region do not meet the long-term goals of Russia's regional security policy. Therefore, Russia has serious mechanisms to influence both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has used and will continue to use all its influence in this matter. Of course, his earnings and success are enough. Simply put, Azerbaijan must play its game on the chessboard in accordance with the process, and define a new strategy against each attack. This is a geopolitical reality, and Azerbaijan, of course, determines its strategy.Undoubtedly, there are many questions that concern the society. But what could be done in the face of Russian pressure (most likely threats)? In the worst case scenario, there would be a war with Russia. With Turkey joining the war, the region would become a landfill. By resisting, Russia would inevitably intervene militarily. The same as intervening in Ukraine and Georgia. Considering that Azerbaijan has completely resolved the Karabakh issue, it has withdrawn all the occupying forces of Armenia from its legal territory. Would Russia maintain its composure without any reaction? Undoubtedly, finding new excuses would provoke Armenia, and Azerbaijan would face Russia as a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization by counter-attacking. The result is clear. It would be politically naive to challenge Russia, thinking that Turkey will provide military support to Azerbaijan. Otherwise, the region would turn into a landfill, all the infrastructure, projects would collapse, material and moral collapse, a collective psychological shock would occur. Taking into account the current geopolitical reality, Azerbaijan has achieved the best within certain risks.

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