Abstract:

Background and Aims: Identification of patients at risk for severe disease early in the course of acute pancreatitis is essential to optimize management and to improve outcomes. We aimed to assess the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score as a predictor of disease severity in acute pancreatitis in a Turkish population. Materials and Methods: We analyzed retrospectively acute pancreatitis patients between January 1999 and December 2006. Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis, Ranson and Computed Tomography Severity Index scores were calculated. Clinical data, laboratory results, pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, and mortality were registered. Accuracy of the scoring system for predicting severity was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results:Of the 111 patients, 63 (56.8%) were female. The median age was 59.1 years. Of all patients, 23 (20.7%) had severe acute pancreatitis and 57.7% had biliary pancreatitis. Of patients with severe acute pancreatitis, 15 (65.2%) developed organ failure, 7 (30.4%) developed pancreatic necrosis, and 2 (8.6%) died. Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis generated similar area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values to those of the Ranson score in predicting severe acute pancreatitis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score to detect pancreatic necrosis was 0.60 (0.38-0.80) and for the Ranson score was 0.70 (0.48-0.87), with no significant differences. To predict pancreatic necrosis, a Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score >2 had a sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 57%, 69%, 44%, and 79%, respectively. The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score was not as good as Ranson and Computed Tomography Severity Index scores for predicting organ failure. Conclusions:The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score was a useful method in a Turkish population for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis, with the advantage of being simple and based on parameters obtained on the first day of hospitalization. The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score is valuable in predicting pancreatic necrosis in severe acute pancreatitis in Turkish patients

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