Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to investigate the basic macroeconomic, financial and structural factors that cause the gap in the Turkish economy with the help of visual statistics and empirical analysis. In Turkey, especially after the 2001 crisis, concerns about the gap in customs transactions that expanded and became permanent have increased. The empirical model used in the study is a synthesis of "inter-period" and "flexibility" approaches. Search transactions treat the balance as a function of national income, budget balance, exchange rate and interest rates. The model was predicted using data in a three-month frequency with the ARDL approach that allows short and long-term analysis. The findings show that the balance of the budget, the exchange rate and the interest rate have a long-term impact on the balance of currency transactions, but only the GDP and budget balance have a short-term impact. The findings related to budget balance show that the Ricardocu Equality Hypothesis is not valid in the Turkish economy, and the Double Open Hypothesis is valid.

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