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Amaç: Sistematik risk unsurlarından biri olarak kabul edilen politik risk, bir ülkenin ekonomik büyüme ve finansal istikrar gibi faktörlerini doğrudan etkileyebilmektedir. Bu bağlamda, ülke riskinin temel belirleyicisi olarak görülebilen politik risk ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve pay piyasası getirileri arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, politik riskin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara ve pay piyasa getirilerine olan etkisini ortaya çıkarmak amaçlanmıştır. Yöntem: Çalışmanın uygulama kısmında G7 ülkelerinin 2002-2017 dönemindeki majör pay piyasası endeks verileri, doğrudan yabancı yatırım tutarları ve Uluslararası Ülke Risk Rehberi ICRG endeks verileri esas alınmıştır. Politik risk ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve pay piyasa getirisi arasındaki ilişki Panel Veri Analiz Yöntemi ile araştırılmıştır. Bulgular: Araştırma sonucunda, politik risk ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif ilişki tespit edilirken politik risk ile pay piyasa getirileri arasında ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Özgünlük: G7 ülkelerindeki doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve pay piyasa getirilerindeki politik risk etkisinin panel veri formunda grup etkisi üzerinden incelenmesi açısından bu çalışmanın özgünlük sunduğu ve alan yazınına katkı sağladığı düşünülmektedir.
Political risk, considered to be one of the systemic risk elements, can directly affect a country’s economic growth and financial stability factors. In this context, it is important to investigate the relationship between the political risk, which can be seen as the main determiner of the country’s risk, and the direct foreign investments and share market returns. This study aims to identify the impact of political risk on foreign investments and share market returns. Method: The study’s implementation part is based on the G7 countries’ major stock market index data, foreign direct investment amounts and the International Country Risk Guide ICRG index data. The relationship between political risk and foreign direct investment and share market return has been studied by Panel Data Analysis Method. Results: The study found a statistically meaningful and negative relationship between political risk and foreign direct investments, while a statistically meaningful and positive relationship between political risk and share market returns. Originality: The study is believed to provide originality and contribute to the field writing in terms of the analysis of the political risk impact on foreign direct investments and share market returns in the panel data form.
Purpose: Political risk, which is considered as one of the systematic risk factors, can directly affect the factors such as economic growth and financial stability of a country. In this context, it is important to investigate the relationship between political risk, which can be the main determinant of a country risk, and foreign direct investment and equity market returns. In this study, it is aimed to determine the effect of political risk on foreign direct investments and equity market returns. Methodology: In the application of this study, the major equity market index data of G7 countries, the amount of foreign direct investments and International Country Risk Guide ICRG index data were used for the period of 2002-2017. The relationship between political risk and foreign direct investments and return on equity markets was investigated by panel data analysis. Findings: As a result of the research, a statistically significant and negative relationship was found between political risk and foreign direct investments while statistically significant and positive relationship was found between political risk and equity market returns. Originality: In the panel data form, foreign direct investments in G7 countries and the political risk impact on stock market returns were analyzed through group effect. In this respect, this study has original value and contributes to the literature.
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