Abstract:

This paper reports a study into the main parameters of long-term contracts for the maintenance of roads. Weaknesses in existing methods and models of substantiation of the initial characteristics of contracts have been identified. It is established that the main reason for the transition to long-term contacts in the road sector is the need to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of road asset management. This determines the main goal to maintain the operational condition of all components of roads at a level that ensures the satisfaction of user requirements and contributes to the preservation of assets. A simulation model for substantiating the parameters of long-term contracts for road maintenance has been built, which makes it possible to simulate forecast assessments of the characteristics of contracts. Underlying this study is the Monte Carlo method, as well as the triangular law of distribution, models of deterioration and restoration of the condition of road elements. Taking into consideration these models, it was established that the error in justifying the parameters of long-term contracts according to the devised method is up to 10 %. The devised model was tested by applying the developed original LTCsimula program using an example of the section of a motorway with a length of 87.3 km with an average level of requirements. According to the results of the test, the assessment of the laws of distribution of value, as well as the amount of deductions and profits of a long-term contract, was carried out. The calculation results demonstrated the model’s capability to determine the strategies for the maintenance of roads, taking into consideration the risk of implementing a contract with an error of up to 3.9 %. The practical use of the devised simulation model makes it possible to improve the efficiency of operational maintenance of roads, as well as to save from 10 % to 40 % of the cost of road maintenance Author Biographies Alexander Kanin, National Transport University PhD, Associate Professor Department of Transport Construction and Property Management

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