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Bu çalışma faktör hareketliliği çerçevesinde göç ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının ticaret üzerindeki etkisini karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma, Türkiye’nin en büyük ticaret partnerlerinden olan Almanya, Fransa, İtalya, Birleşik Krallık ve ABD’ye giden göçmenlerin, bu ülkelerden Türkiye’ye gelen doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının ve ticarete etki eden döviz kuru, yabancı istihdamı, küreselleşme indeksi ve politik istikrar indeksi değişkenlerinin 2000-2018 yılları arasındaki yıllık verilerini kapsamaktadır. Ticaret-Göç ve Ticaret-Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlar bağlantılarının analizinde dinamik panel veri modeline dayalı Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Tahmincisi (GMM) tahmin yönteminden faydalanılmaktadır. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen bulgular, 2000-2018 yıllarında Türkiye’den giden göçmenlerin, Türkiye’ye gelen yabancı yatırımlara göre ticaret üzerinde daha fazla etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, geleneksel dış ticaret teorilerinin temel varsayımları geride bırakıldığında, faktör hareketleri ile ticaretin tamamlayıcı olduğunu vurgulayan literatürle paralel sonuçlar elde edilmektedir.
This study aims to compare the impact of immigration and foreign direct capital investments on trade in the framework of mobility. The study covers the annual data of migrants to Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, the largest trade partners of Turkey, the direct foreign capital investments from these countries to Turkey and the exchange rate, foreign employment, globalization index and political stability index variables that affect trade between 2000-2018 years. In the analysis of trade-immigration and trade-direct foreign capital investment links, the dynamic panel data model is based on the Generalized Moments Forecast (GMM) forecast method. The findings from the study show that migrants from Turkey in the years 2000-2018 have a greater impact on trade than foreign investments in Turkey. Furthermore, when the basic assumptions of traditional foreign trade theories are left behind, results are obtained parallel to the literature that emphasizes that trade is complementary with the factors movements.
This study investigates the effect of immigration and foreign direct investment on trade within the framework of factor mobility. Hence, we used annual data, spanning the period of 2000–2018, and immigration flows to Turkey’s major trade partners (Germany, France, Italy, UK, and the United States). The inward foreign direct investment flows to Turkey from these countries. However, exchange rates, foreign employment, globalization index, and political stability index variables affect trade. The findings show that migration flows from Turkey to five countries and have more impact on trade, compared to inward foreign direct investment to Turkey over the period of 2000–2018. Furthermore, when the fundamental assumptions of traditional foreign trade theories are ignored, parallel results are obtained, indicating that factor movements and trade are complementary.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Ulusal
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