Abstract:

Land use land cover change studies are very effective in decision-making processes related to cities. In the research, the future change of land cover in Ankara is predicted by using Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) data for the years 1990, 2012, and 2018. The obtained data were analyzed using Geographic Information Systems. The cellular automata and Markov chain methods were applied and integrated into the production of forecast maps, and the growth of structural areas for the year 2056 was modeled as spatial and temporal. The suitability of the applied modeling approach has been proven by analysing the reference and forecast maps for 2018 with the Kappa statistical value (Klocation: 0.9744). The areal change between 2018-2056 reveals the loss of agricultural lands, wetlands, and water bodies in contrast to the increase in artificial areas. The results reveal the speed of land cover change and especially the west, northwest, and southwest growth pressure of the city.

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