Özet:

In this study, changes in peach-nectarine (Prunus persica L.) production and trade in the world and Turkey have been evaluated considering developments in the last decade. Turkey's production and export volumes for the next three years were also estimated, and competitiveness analysis was performed for the major exporting countries. According to 2010-2019 data, it was determined that there were significant changes in peach-nectarine production, production areas, and productivity in the world. Production and export forecasting was examined with the ARIMA model, which is the Box-Jenkins method. By using 50-year data covering 1971-2020, ARIMA (1,1,0) was the best model in production and ARIMA (0,1,2) in exports. Estimates indicated that Turkey's export and production in 2023 would be 893.575 and 157.343 tons, respectively. To determine competitiveness, Balassa's revealed comparative advantage and Vollrath's relative export advantage ındex, relative ımport penetration ındex, relative trade advantage ındex, and revealed competitiveness were used. For this purpose, important exporting countries such as Spain, Greece, Italy, China, Chile, USA, Jordan, Uzbekistan and the Netherlands were examined. Considering the index values calculated for the period covering the years 2010-2019, it has been determined that Turkey has a comparative advantage in peach-nectarine exports. Spain, Uzbekistan, Greece, Jordan, and Chile attracted attention as other countries with comparative advantage. Besides protecting existing markets, speeding up the search for new markets is very important to maintain the comparative advantage gained by Turkey.